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Weather's role in the 2016 election

How might Tuesday's weather affect Election Day? (KRNV)

RENO, Nev. (KRNV) - There has been a lot of research surrounding how the weather impacts voter turnout. Particularly, bad weather -- when you have to make the choice to brave the elements to get to the polls, or to stay inside your home.

According to CNN this year's battleground states include:

  • Arizona
  • Florida
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • North Carolina

Only one battleground state is looking at dealing with weather impacts: Nebraska. But the majority of the population in Nebraska lives closer to the eastern border, and much of the forecast rain will impact the south central portion of the state.

Taking a closer look though, Republicans are seeing more rain in the forecast than Democrats. With rain impacts forecast for north central Kansas, southwestern Missouri, western Arkansas, south central Oklahoma, central Texas and much of Louisiana. Including major cities like Springfield, MO, Norman, OK, and Dallas, TX.

So, could rainy skies impact voter turn out in Republican-slated states? Well according to a 2007 study by Gomez, Hansford and Krause, yes. Their paper found a statistically significant link between voter turn out and weather. But, they also found that Republican candidates benefit electorally from the turnout-depressing effects of bad weather. That is, if bad weather was impacting predominately blue states. But, rainy skies are not in the forecast for the majority of Democrat-slated states.

States leaning Trump-Pence:

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arkansas
  • Georgia
  • Idaho
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine (cd)
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • West Virginia
  • Wyoming


States leaning Clinton-Kaine:

  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • D.C.
  • Hawaii
  • Illinois
  • Maine (state)
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Minnesota
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • Wisconsin

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